Flash flooding and heat continue to dominate the summer
And an update on the removal of senior NOAA officials
Starting off this morning with an update to yesterday’s story about the two senior NOAA officials that led the agency’s Sharpiegate investigation being relieved of their duties. Last night, the Washington Post published an article about the situation in which they were able to interview Dr. Stephen Volz, the head of NOAA’s National Environmental, Data, and Satellite Services (NESDIS). Dr. Volz speculated that the timing of the action against himself and NOAA Deputy General Counsel Jeff Dillen was coincidental, and that he was actually being targeted due to his increasingly vocal opposition of plans to more aggressively privatize NOAA’s satellite programs.
As NESDIS administrator, Dr. Volz is the senior executive responsible for NOAA’s satellite programs, and he has long held the position that while NOAA should be more open to purchasing data from the private sector that core satellite capabilities need to remain a NOAA function. Obviously this position could be seen by administration officials as obstructing their own plans for more privatization. Dr. Volz stressed that he was not given any reason for being removed other than a generic investigation into “conduct,” and we do not have any rationale for the similar action taken against Jeff Dillen. For the record, a NOAA spokesperson told the Post that the two personnel actions were unconnected to each other or to Sharpiegate.
As I discussed yesterday, current and former NOAA colleagues I was able to chat with about the removal of Dr. Volz prior to the Washington Post article viewed it as retaliation for Sharpiegate. Based on my own thoughts and quick chats with a couple of retired NOAA employees, my guess is that Dr. Volz’ feeling that the action against him was more related to his position on privatization will do little to reassure the NOAA rank and file. And, as someone said to me on BlueSky:
Regardless of whether the rationale is based on Sharpiegate or his position on privatization (or both), the perception among NOAA staff will likely be that Dr. Volz was removed for standing up for NOAA’s science and mission. As Dr. Volz himself said, “I do think this sends a message, a very clear one, to people who take adverse opinions to what they’re directed to do.”
The Post article also noted concerns about the serious drain of experience the agency has suffered from additional staff losses, including the recent resignation of Jeff Thomas, who led NOAA’s critical Acquisitions and Grants Office (AGO). AGO is a hugely important entity within NOAA as they control the mechanisms by which funding gets from the agency to NOAA’s university affiliated cooperative institutes, research grantees, and of course the procurement of new systems such as radars and satellites. Based on my own experience as a NOAA manager before my retirement, I can say that AGO was already stretched thin prior to the last 6 months. The loss of their senior executive - and other staff - has almost certainly made the situation even worse.
Turning to weather, the 24-hour rainfall from the Multi-radar Multi-sensor System (MRMS) shows that the most widespread heavy rainfall ended up focusing not in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri as we talked about yesterday, but rather farther northeast. While flash flood warnings were issued in this area, again the most impactful flash flooding happened from a much more “innocent” looking spot on this map, this time in northeast Illinois.
That small area of 2-4” of rain I circled fell primarily in a couple of hours around midday and was centered on the south side of Chicago. If you look closely at the 3-hourly MRMS rainfall ending at 1 pm CT above, you can see an airplane near the center of the image, which is the location of Chicago Midway Airport. Midway reported 1.5” of rain in just 37 minutes, and in 90 minutes received a total of 2.77”.
Needless to say, this intense rainfall caused serious flash flooding as shown by the MRMS/FLASH unit streamflow product above, with values greater than 10 indicative of significant urban flooding. A number of interstates and roadways were flooded with some roads washed out and stranded vehicles.
The Chicagoland area will be have the risk of additional flash flooding today with rounds of thunderstorms expected along a stationary front from northern Missouri east-northeast into northwest Ohio. A slight (level 2 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall is in place here, along with farther east along the front in western Pennsylvania. Severe storms are possible in the Northern Plains with damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes the primary risk.
This NWS key messages graphic provides an excellent overview of what is expected to be the primary weather story early next week, the heat wave over the eastern United States. The heat looks to become particularly intense and dangerous over the southeast quarter of the country where widespread extreme heat risk is anticipated much of the upcoming week. It still looks as if a slow moving cold front will gradually erode the heat from the north as the week goes on, but the Southeast will be the last to see any relief and will suffer under the heat dome through at least Thursday.
A number of record warm temperatures occurred yesterday in the eastern US, including in the New York and Philadelphia metro areas, while a few record lows occurred in the Southwest in that blue area on the global temperature anomaly map above. Dozens of record warm minimums and some record highs are expected early next week as the eastern US heat wave peaks. Of course, the US is not the only area seeing extreme heat, with much of Europe and Africa and large swaths of Asia seeing well above normal temperatures.
Turkey set a new all-time national record high temperature with 50.5C (123F) at Silopi. Eastern Asia is also enduring a brutal heat wave, with a number of locations in Japan setting all-time record highs.
While the heat is peaking in the eastern US the next several days, it will also be peaking in eastern Asia.
Fire danger will continue to be a concern in parts of the western US due to strong winds, low humidity and high-based thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the Canadian wildfire smoke has shifted east from the last couple of days, and air quality alerts are now in effect for parts of the Northeast.
It still looks as if the tropics will become more active over the next several days, with the potential for a few different systems to form in the central and eastern Pacific. The Atlantic will probably take a bit more time to become favorable, but it certainly looks plausible that a system or two will take shape over the next two weeks. Right now it is way too early to say where or how any systems might develop, just that conditions will become less unfavorable for tropical development than we have seen over much of the basin the last several weeks.