8 Comments
User's avatar
Alyce's avatar

That was tough to read. I was lucky to spend the first half of my career at FedEx where we measured everything, identified systematic causes of failures and quickly fixed processes. When I hopped over to health care, there was little to none of that mindset. Every “adverse event” was reduced to an anecdote accompanied by a deep reluctance to identify real causes. Terrifying. I wish everyone within 100 miles of a flood plain would read your piece. 😩

Alan Gerard (Balanced Wx)'s avatar

Thank you, I was already passionate about flash flood science and awareness, but this event has taken it to another level for me. This is one of my posts I truly hope gets a lot of sharing and traction.

Mike Smith's avatar

Alyce, you are right and it applies to meteorology. The NWS doesn't even do its weak "Service Assessments" anymore if they made errors.

Today's GFS model has another "Fantasycane" striking Florida yet the NWS makes no real effort to fix its flagship model.

Mike Smith's avatar

It is Sunday, November 23 and we've had two more GFS runs with "Fantasycanes."

Our flagship model is an international embarrassment.

Alan Gerard (Balanced Wx)'s avatar

I wish I could argue with you...

Tom Bradshaw's avatar

Alan - another absolutely OUTSTANDING piece of work on your part. Thank you for putting this together and sharing it with all of us. I share your overall concern that preparedness for and mitigation of extreme flood events constitute some of the most acute challenges facing the meteorology and emergency management communities, and society in general. As the MIC responsible for a very large population area in Flash Flood Alley, I’m honestly very concerned that we’re not making an appropriate effort as a collective stakeholder group to apply the lessons learned from Kerrville. This is something I really hope to put more focus on within our community in the coming months.

Again - fantastic work, sir.

Alan Gerard (Balanced Wx)'s avatar

Thanks so much, Tom. I used my opportunity in front of IAEM earlier this week to really advocate for a combined effort by EMs and the met community to make flash flooding a focus, and use lessons from Kerrville and other events to improve education, awareness and warnings.

Tom Bradshaw's avatar

That’s great, Alan. As you and many others have pointed out before, the “flash flood problem” is so multi-faceted from a phenomenological, meteorological and societal standpoint. It’s truly an elephant that has to be eaten one bite at a time. I think that’s one of the big challenges we face. That being said, discussions like the ones you’re fostering are helping us to move forward.