I strongly encourage you to read the entire story. A quick summary is that the mayor of Riverdale, IA discovered last May that — much to his surprise and chagrin — the federally maintained streamflow gauge on flashy Duck Creek in his town had been pulled and was no longer in service, and that the federal scientist who oversaw the gauge and whom he had a relationship with had left the agency (I assume the US Geological Service) due to the DOGE Deferred Resignation program. Luckily, the mayor of the small town is a civil engineer for the US Army Corps of Engineers. He was able to work with the University of Iowa’s Iowa Flood Center to install a small, cheap experimental streamflow gauge they had developed on the stream. This gauge proved to be very beneficial in enabling the mayor to deal with a potential flash flood shortly after the gauge was installed.

My sense is the NYT shared this article with the framing of a positive story about how state and local governments can pull themselves up and fix problems — which of course it is. However, as someone who was intimately involved with the federal science apparatus meant to keep people safe and informed from flooding risks, I read this article with increasing anger and, indeed, despair about what we have lost in the last 15 months.

It starts with the fact that the gauge itself — which was obviously a key flood monitoring tool for this small town — was apparently pulled out of service without any coordination or notification. That is likely because of the fact that the federal scientist responsible for it abruptly left the government during the period of chaos when literally thousands of experienced federal scientists left agencies like NOAA and the USGS. Imagine how many times this scenario that affected Riverdale, IA has been repeated across the entire country in the last 15 months.

Now the town was left without any way to monitor their flashy stream. Luckily for them, their mayor happens to be a civil engineer for the federal government, enabling him to rapidly connect with the extant Iowa Flood Center and quickly get an inexpensive replacement gauge. As the NYT notes, it is awesome that Iowa has such a resource for its state. However, how many small towns and cities around the country are not lucky enough to have a flooding expert as their mayor and also do not have access to the Iowa Flood Center, which is a very unique research institution? The answer, of course, is likely hundreds or thousands.

We as citizens can and should have serious conversations about what the roles of federal, state and local government should be in weather and flood forecasting and monitoring, and how each of these levels of government should invest their limited resources. However, the fact is that state and local governments have traditionally not borne much responsibility in these areas. If we as a nation want to adjust the overall balance of responsibility, it should be done in an organized manner with a thoughtful plan — not by DOGE and OPM haphazardly getting rid of thousands of experienced federal scientists and reducing funding for critical items like streamflow gages without even notifying the affected local communities. (To be fair and clear, the NYT article does say that the DOGE cuts should be reversed.)

Furthermore, that plan needs to acknowledge that the resources that states and local communities have vary tremendously — and that by reducing the federal footprint of weather and flood forecasting and monitoring responsibilities and transferring it “downward,” we are likely ensuring a much more uneven level of warning and forecast services than we have today. Iowa is lucky to have some viable state resources to leverage to help them with flood forecasting — are we expecting even smaller resourced states like Mississippi and Vermont, which have their own serious flooding issues, to stand up their own state flood centers? How long will that take and how much will it cost?

The Texas Hill Country flash floods last year is an illustrative example of the real world, life and death nature of these questions. In the wake of that catastrophe there have been numerous calls for increasing the streamflow and rain gauge network on the upper Guadalupe River to enable the NWS and state and local officials to be able to much better track future flash flood waves moving down the river. Who should be responsible for procuring and maintaining those gauges? Luckily, the state of Texas likely has the resources that they can make this a priority if they so desire. There are dozens if not hundreds of flashy rivers and streams around the country that need similar hydrometeorological gauge networks. Are we as a nation willing to leave the responsibility of that monitoring to state and local jurisdictions? Maybe we are —but we need to be clear-eyed that without a serious plan and oversight, that decision will likely lead to uneven results and almost surely will allow catastrophic events to continue to happen without adequate warning.

Finishing off today with a quick discussion of the severe weather potential the next couple of days. Some scattered supercell storms are expected to develop into this evening across parts of the south central United States along the slow moving cold front dropping south across the region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible with the most intense storms.

Wednesday into Wednesday night looks to have the potential to be a more widespread, higher end severe weather period across the South as the front becomes quasi-stationary and a new upper level disturbance interacts with it. There is still some uncertainty about how many storms will develop in this region and potentially interfere with how unstable the atmosphere becomes. However, very moist air will be flowing north off the unusually warm Gulf and if some daytime heating can help destabilize the atmosphere, a higher end severe weather and tornado threat could evolve as shown by the Nadocast AI severe weather probabilities above. We will be keeping a close eye on high resolution model and observations trends as we head into Wednesday.

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The subcommittee approved a bill along a party line vote that would appropriate $4.070B to NOAA for operations, research and facilities (ORF), the primary operating budget for the agency. This is well above the President’s request ($3.337B) but a cut of nearly 10% of what was appropriated for the agency in FY2026. At this point, we do not have access (at least I have not seen it yet) to the subcommittee’s bill report which will give much more detail on the subcommittee’s intent for specific agencies and projects. However, in the press release announcing the bill, Subcommittee Chair Hal Rogers (R-KY) stated that the bill was “increasing funding for the National Weather Service to protect Americans from severe weather and eliminate radar gaps.” That would obviously be good news for the NWS and meteorological operations — but given the proposed overall cut to NOAA, would likely mean large cuts to other NOAA programs including potentially NOAA Research (Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) which the administration has again targeted for elimination its proposed FY2027 budget.

With regard to other science agencies, the House bill has a funding level of $6B for NASA Science, way above the $3.894B proposed by the administration but 17% below the FY26 level of $7.25B. NSF — the entity that funds the National Center for Atmospheric Research and large amounts of basic atmospheric science research — has a level of $8.75B. Again, this is more than double the $3.409B proposed by the President, but would represent a deep cut of about 26% compared to FY26.

Again, we are just at the start of the budgeting process, and more detailed budget documents from both the House and administration for the agencies discussed above are still to come. As of now, the subcommittees responsible for some other key weather related such as the US Geological Survey (USGS), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Energy have not released any FY2027 information. The Senate — the chamber that was much more favorable to science agencies last year and whose budget numbers ended up being closer to what was actually passed into law — has not released any FY2027 numbers. Of course, this also does not say anything about how the administration would actually spent and allocate money in FY27 — a key issue given the slow spending that has been seen in FY26.

It is May — but we are not quite done talking about winter weather yet. The next in a series of upper level disturbances helping to keep an upper level trough anchored across the East will drop southeast across the Rockies and bring heavy snowfall Tuesday into Wednesday. May is the wettest month of the year for the northern Colorado and Wyoming Front Range, so getting an event like this in early May is not particularly unusual. However, it is very welcome for an area suffering from severe to exceptional drought.

With regard to weather we more typically associated with May — severe storms — a slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather is now in place for this afternoon and evening from the Kansas City metro area to western Lake Erie. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop along a southward moving cold front — large to very large hail the primary risk in western parts of the slight risk, with damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes in eastern areas. A conditional risk for a few severe storms with very large hail will extend back to the southwest into the Southern Plains.

A threat of severe weather will continue along this front as it sags toward the Mid-South on Tuesday. By Wednesday, another upper level disturbance will interact with the slow moving front to bring a potentially more organized and higher end risk for severe storms to parts of the South as seen on the day 3 NCAR AI severe weather probabilities (upper right hand graphic above).

The record temperatures over the last day pretty clearly shows the weather pattern over the country: an upper level trough bringing abnormally cool temperatures to the Southeast while the Pacific Northwest saw record highs under an upper level high pressure area. Portland set a record high of 91F, and reached 90F on the second earliest date on record ever (earliest April 30 1998). The upper level high pressure area producing this anomalous warm weather is expected to intensify and expand over the next several days, and by early next week numerous record warm temperatures appear likely for the western United States.

Just a reminder that if and when severe weather becomes an issue, I will be sharing occasional thoughts and updates on Substack Chat, which is a benefit for those who support Balanced Weather with a paid subscriber — along with occasional posts on Facebook, BlueSky and Substack Notes.

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Whenever possible, I like to use Sunday to take stock of what the recent national climate trends have been. Starting with recent precipitation, the last two weeks have finally seen some beneficial precipitation from southern New Mexico across parts of Texas and into the Southeast, with the most anomalous compared to normal over the western parts of this area. While not a drought busting period of precipitation, it is certainly helpful and better than the persistent dryness that has been dominating this area.

With a few exceptions (central California/Nevada/Washington, parts of the Midwest), much of the rest of the country has, unfortunately, been drier than normal the last half of April.

The most recent US Drought Monitor from last week continues to show most of the southern and western parts of the country in significant levels of drought — some improvement in drought will likely be seen in parts of the South when this week’s update is released due to this week’s rainfall. Climatologist Brian Brettschneider noted on BlueSky that the last 6 months was the driest November-April for the contiguous US since 1980-1, and the 7th driest on record back to 1895.

Brian also shared that April 2026 was the warmest April on record for a large part of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, and was the 8th warmest on record for the contiguous US.

This weekend has seen unusually cold early May weather across parts of the Southeast as an upper level trough of low pressure has taken over the East, with a number of record low temperatures set. Ahead of the cold front ushering in this cool weather, the Florida Peninsula saw several record high temperatures on Saturday.

The Pacific Northwest also had a few record highs on Saturday, and there will be more on Sunday, including some early season lower 90s expected for the Portland metro area.

Unseasonably warm weather will continue in the Pacific Northwest this week, and gradually expand to encompass much of the West. Meanwhile, a brief warming trend will occur in parts of the East before the next surge of unseasonably cool weather moves in by the middle part of the week.

Risks of severe thunderstorms will accompany this next cold front as it moves southeast across the eastern half of the US, as shown in the NCAR AI severe weather probabilities for the next week.

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Starting off this morning with a recap of a bit of a surprisingly impactful severe weather episode that occurred in South Texas Friday afternoon. The severe weather was associated with this rather impressive looking band of severe storms that moved across the Victoria and Port Lavaca areas.

Some severe weather was anticipated in this region yesterday - the Storm Prediction Center had a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk in place. However, large hail was the primary focus for significant severe weather (SPC had a CIG1 risk of very large hail) given that this region was well north of a warm front (red line shows approximate position above) meaning that the unstable air feeding severe storms would be “elevated,” i.e., the warm, moist inflow would be aloft, not surface based. This sort of setup reduces the chances of damaging straight line winds and especially tornadoes — but does not necessarily mean no risk (SPC had low but non-zero probabilities of tornadoes and damaging straight line winds outlooked here).

Often when elevated thunderstorm activity is occurring, there is what meteorologists call an “inversion” in place in the lower levels, where the temperature actually increases as one goes up into the lower levels of the atmosphere. This inversion serves as a kind of barrier, often preventing the thunderstorm downdrafts that cause damaging straight line winds from reaching the surface. However, this 2 pm CT model sounding for Palacios, TX taken from a 1 hour forecast of the High Resolution Rapid Model showed that the lower levels were more “isothermal,” i.e., rather than actually increasing the temperatures were rather steady up to about 10,000 feet where they started to decrease. You can also see that very strong winds of 60 to 80 mph are present in the layer from 10,000 to 20,000 feet AGL. These strong mid level winds provided wind shear to yield the organization of the severe storms we can see in the radar loop above.

Along with several incidences of large hail, these storms ended up producing some intense winds, including a measured 119 mph gust at a WeatherFlow site near Port Comfort and 77 mph at the NWS observation site at Palacios. Significant wind damage was reported, with NWS Corpus Christi noting that damage in the area of the 119 mph gust appeared consistent with the reported wind speed. This is an interesting case showing again why severe weather forecasts are probabilistic in nature — many factors have to come together to produce significant severe weather, and sometimes even when the probabilities are low, the pieces do come together.

Florida will be the center for weather action today, as a line of strong to severe storms is expected to progress across northern and central Florida this afternoon. SPC recently issued a tornado watch for areas along and north of the Interstate 4 corridor. The most recent high resolution models suggest that the areas closer to the Gulf Coast may have the highest relative risk for severe weather within this area as more intense activity move in off the Gulf. Regardless, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible with the most intense storms in the watch area.

Farther south, windy and hot (record high temperatures expected this afternoon) conditions ahead of the cold front will result in elevated fire danger, and red flag warnings are in effect.

Severe weather looks as if it will get a bit more active again during the first half of next week as an upper level disturbance moves southeast on the western side of the upper level trough of low pressure taking shape over the eastern United States.

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Louis also points out something that I missed in reviewing other coverage of the Monday Texas legislative hearing — that the actual meteorology and rainfall aspects of the flash flood were completely ignored in the hearing and apparently in the investigation conducted for the legislature:

This week, the Texas Legislature’s joint General Investigating Committee on the July 4, 2025, flood convened two days and nearly 20 hours of testimony examining what went wrong at Camp Mystic. The science — the storm, the atmosphere, the canyon, the structural limits of the warning system — was not discussed. When the committee’s own lead investigator, Casey Garrett, was asked directly whether her team had consulted a meteorologist, she answered simply: no. No committee member followed up on that answer.

I have to say that it is pretty unfathomable to me that you could do an investigation on this catastrophic event without even talking to a scientific expert on the topic. It seems as if the focus of the legislative hearing may have been on the Camp Mystic tragedy, which obviously generated tremendous interest — and indeed outrage — because of the number of children killed. However, this event impacted Kerr County well beyond Camp Mystic and nearly 100 others lost their lives along other parts of the Guadalupe River that morning, and the how and why those lives were lost needs to be examined just as closely as the Camp Mystic situation.

Again, this is why myself and many others have been urgently calling for a Natural Disaster Safety Board along the lines of the National Transportation Safety Board, to thoroughly and impartially investigate disasters such as this and develop recommendations for improvement. Preventing similar tragedies in the future — not just in central Texas but across the country — will require scientists, emergency managers, political leaders, and many others to be self-critical and willing to make some difficult choices to take tangible, sometimes difficult, steps to push forward needed changes.

As we head into this weekend, the weather pattern across the country is in the middle of a transition to a pattern dominated by an upper level trough of low pressure across the eastern half of the country. Part of that process involves an upper level weather disturbance moving east-southeast along the Gulf Coast region the next couple of days, which will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to the area. While the rainfall is much needed, some training of strong thunderstorms could produce some localized flash flooding as well, and the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the western and central Gulf Coast region in a slight (level 2 of 4) risk of flash flooding.

As this upper level disturbance moves farther east on Saturday, it will spawn a low pressure system over Georgia that will intensify as it moves northeast off the East Coast. This will bring a more focused risk of severe weather to parts of northern and central Florida and extreme southern Georgia. Damaging straight line winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible with the most intense storms.

The evolving upper level trough over the East will mean generally below normal temperatures for much of the country the next several days. Some record cold temperatures are possible the next couple of days across the Mid-South and Southeast.

Before the cold front ushering in this cooler weather moves through Florida, a number of record high temperatures are expected Saturday afternoon. Elevated wildfire danger will also continue to be an issue until the front and some rainfall move in.

The Pacific Northwest will be the one area of the country with above normal temperatures the next several days, and in fact a number of record warm readings are expected on Sunday.

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The owners of Camp Mystic, the Christian girls’ camp in the Texas Hill Country where 27 campers and counselors and owner Dick Eastland perished in a devastating flash flood along the Guadalupe River on July 4th, announced on Thursday in a statement that they were withdrawing their application to the state for an operating license in 2026.

No administrative process or summer season should move forward while families continue to grieve, while investigations continue and while so many Texans still carry the pain of last July’s tragedy…rather than risk defending our rights under Texas law in a manner that may unintentionally effect further harm, we choose rather to withdraw our application for the 2026 camp season.

Twenty-eight precious lives were lost. We recognize that no statement and no decision can undo that loss or ease the burden carried each day by parents, siblings, loved ones, survivors, first responders and our beautiful Kerr County community. We also recognize that over 800 girls want to return to Camp Mystic Cypress Lake this summer. Our special bond with our Camp Mystic families does not change or end with the announcement. We love each of you. This decision is intended to remove any doubt that Camp Mystic has heard the concerns expressed by grieving families, members of the Texas House and Senate investigating committees and citizens across our state. Respect for those voices requires that we step back now.

This decision comes after a Texas legislative hearing Monday in which Casey Garrett, the investigator tasked by the Texas legislature with investigating the tragedy at Camp Mystic, presented the summary findings from her investigation:

Camp Mystic hadn’t prepared counselors and staff with adequate emergency training, an evacuation plan or emergency preparedness supplies such as life jackets or ladders, Garrett said. Counselors performed “heroic actions,” she said — but did not execute a safe evacuation plan because there was none. As a result, Garrett concluded, neither grown adults nor college-age counselors had the preparation or organization to take advantage of the time they had to get girls out of cabins safely after the National Weather Service pushed out the first flood warning.

I have been following and analyzing this event intently since the flash flood occurred. The findings of this investigation appear to confirm what I talked about in a detailed analysis of the event I made last fall after visiting the area where the flash flood occurred: in spite of extensive evidence available showing the extreme vulnerability that the area around Camp Mystic has to catastrophic flash flooding, the camp had essentially no plan for how to keep campers and counselors safe in the event of a rapid onset flash flood.

While this lack of planning was likely the primary cause of the large loss of life at Camp Mystic, nearly 100 people died in other parts of Kerr County when the river rose more than 25 feet in less than an hour. The Department of Commerce Office of Inspector General released a report last week detailing the findings of their investigation into the performance and staffing of the National Weather Service for the flash flood event. Concerns about the role of potential NWS performance issues arose in the immediate aftermath of this tragedy as there had already been ongoing media reports about staffing and resource woes at the agency leading up to the event.

As I reported at the time, in spite of vacancies at the office including the senior positions of warning coordination meteorologist and science and operations officer, subjectively the warning performance seemed to have been pretty good. So I was somewhat surprised to see in this chart from the OIG report that there were only 3 meteorologists on duty at the NWS Austin/San Antonio office at midnight as the heavy rainfall event began to ramp up. That number dwindled to only 2 by 2 am and for the remainder of that midnight shift period (ending at 7 am). This means that the office staffing levels were really more or less what one would expect for any “routine” midnight shift with no extra staffing. While to be clear the two lead meteorologists on duty told the OIG investigators that the staffing “was sufficient from their perspective at the time, and in hindsight, to support the flash flood event that unfolded” — I will categorically say as someone who was a NWS weather forecast office (WFO) meteorologist-in-charge for more than a decade, I would not be comfortable with the idea of an event of that magnitude happening with only two people on duty.

Having said that and in total fairness to these two dedicated NWS staff members that handled the event, they must have properly prioritized their warning and decision support duties as the OIG report also found that the warning services and outreach were well done. Flash flood warning lead times mostly exceeded goals established by the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA), and extensive efforts to coordinate with local officials were performed. This section of the report summarizes the office’s actions:

A flash flood warning (an urgent alert that flash flooding is in progress or imminent) was initially issued to portions of Kerr County, including Hunt, at 1:14 a.m. on July 4. This warning was broadcast via WEA, the EAS, and NWR. Based on data from the USGS river gauge at Hunt, the water level began rising to 10 feet around 3 a.m. and crested at 37.52 feet at 5:10 a.m. In coordination with the WGRFC (ed., West Gulf River Forecast Center), the Austin/San Antonio WFO also began issuing river flood warnings along the Guadalupe River: one at 3:19 a.m. for the region between Hunt and Kerrville, and one at 3:33 a.m. for the region between Kerrville and Comfort, Texas. Following the issuance of the river flood warnings, WFO call logs indicate unsuccessful attempts to contact the Kerr County emergency management coordinator at 3:39 a.m. and 4:42 a.m. and three unsuccessful attempts to contact the Kerr County Sheriff’s Office between 3:40 a.m. and 3:43 a.m.

WFO staff said they could not obtain real-time observations of an ongoing flash flood upstream of Hunt because they were unable to contact either the Kerr County emergency management coordinator or the sheriff’s office, and because there are no river gauges upstream of Hunt on the South Fork of the Guadalupe River. Therefore, they decided to upgrade the existing flash flood warning threat tag from considerable damage to catastrophic damage, with flash flood emergency wording based on the observed radar and rain gauge data. Flash flood emergencies are exceedingly rare situations when extremely heavy rain is leading to a severe threat to human life and catastrophic flood damage. The Austin/San Antonio WFO issued a flash flood emergency for the Guadalupe River near Hunt at 4:03 a.m. on July 4 through a flash flood statement (providing updated observations and impact information) and subsequently broadcast it via WEA and NWR.

Based on the direct evidence of a deadly flood wave moving downriver observed by the Guadalupe River gauge at Hunt, the Austin/San Antonio WFO issued a second flash flood emergency via a flash flood warning at 5:34 a.m. This new alert covered the river between Hunt and Kerrville, which WFO personnel said was to ensure it would be issued via WEA along that portion of the Guadalupe River. By 5:40 a.m., WFO call logs indicate the first reports of rescues taking place along the South Fork of the Guadalupe River upstream of Hunt, as well as rescues along the Guadalupe River in Hunt.

I added the bolding to the discussion of the flash flood emergency because I want to emphasize the importance of that issuance and the tremendous work of the NWS meteorologists. The decision to issue a flash flood emergency is a very serious one given the noted rarity and implications of such an alert, and typically is not done without coordination with local and county emergency officials who can confirm that serious flood impacts are ongoing. The fact that the NWS forecasters made the decision to move forward with a flash flood emergency based solely on radar and observational data is testimony to their expertise and ability to intuitively understand the seriousness of the unfolding situation, and I cannot overstate how much I applaud their efforts.

Obviously, I do not know what led to the fact that there were only two meteorologists on duty for most of this event at the Austin/San Antonio NWS office. One would have to assume that staffing shortages — the OIG report found that 6 of the office’s 19 hydrometeorological positions were vacant — combined with it being a major holiday played a key role. Luckily, it certainly seems based on the warning performance that two experienced lead meteorologists who could reasonably handle this catastrophic event were the two people working.

Ultimately, though, with a public safety agency as important as the NWS, we should not have to rely on “luck” — the NWS should be resourced with funding and staffing levels to ensure that sufficient numbers of adequately trained and supported meteorologists and technicians are available 24x7 to handle the agency’s important mission. While I know the incredibly dedicated NWS staff will do everything in their power to ensure that their mission is met, recent severe weather events and numerous conversations with colleagues lead me to the inescapable conclusion that our luck is running out.

The NWS just initiated a new recruitment effort to try to fill the many positions that are needed to help rebuild staffing levels — but this will take time and the extensive experience that was lost with the mass of retirements and departures last year will take years to reconstruct. How the current administration and Congress move forward with NOAA and NWS budgets and oversight in coming years will play a huge role in the quality of weather warnings and services our nation will have going forward.

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At the risk of being accused of making a bad pun — yesterday was certainly a “hail” of a day across the south central part of the country. There were more than 80 reports of significant (2” in diameter or greater) hail across the region. In addition to the giant hail that impacted the Springfield, MO metro area (see my post from last night), an intense supercell impacted parts of North Texas, producing hail larger than softballs as well as a likely tornado in Mineral Wells. 3” diameter hail also fell in parts of Arkansas and Mississippi.

April has seen an unusual amount of very large hail across the central part of the country. Data analysis from the NOAA National Severe Storms Lab (above) shows that incidences of very large hail (2+ inches) have been above normal from North Texas north across the Upper Midwest and east across the Lower Great Lakes.

Coincidentally (?), the Wall Street Journal published an excellent article today showing how homeowners insurance rates have increased in recent years due to increasing natural hazard risk. If you do not have a subscription to WSJ, Peter Sinclair summarized the article on his “This Is Not Cool” climate change blog.

This graphic shows that parts of the Upper Midwest have had much larger recent increases in insurance rates than even hurricane prone areas of the East Coast. The WSJ analysis found that insurance premiums remain highest in hurricane vulnerable areas, but are rapidly rising in other parts of the nation due to increases in losses due to hail, wildfires and wind damage:

Damage from hail is also on the rise. Verisk, a catastrophe-modeling firm, estimates potential insured losses from severe thunderstorms of around $60 billion a year—almost double its modeled losses from just four years ago. “The biggest change was looking at hail frequency and impact,” said Verisk’s Rob Newbold.

This increase in hail losses may be partially due to increased frequency of large hail — but this is very difficult to quantify as large hail can impact very small areas and not always get reported — records of large hail incidence are not particularly robust. Research efforts such as the NSSL and the University of Oklahoma Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS) are giving scientists a better sense of how hail frequency might be changing utilizing NEXRAD radar data — but this data only goes back to the late 1990s.

A definite contributor to the increase in hail losses is the expanding bull’s-eye effect that was discussed in a 2015 article by researchers Stephen Strader and Walker Ashley. Suburban and exurban sprawl are placing more and more “targets” — people and their “stuff” — into areas where they can suffer damage from hail.

As an example, the area along the Interstate 35 corridor in central Texas from Austin to Waco is one of the more vulnerable areas in the country to very large hail, having about a 50% chance in any given year of having a 2” or greater hail report within 25 miles of a given point.

Meanwhile, areas such as Round Rock and Waco have seen tremendous growth in recent years, and the Texas Demographic Center anticipates additional massive population growth in this area over the next several decades. Given these societal trends, even without actual increases in the frequency or intensity of large hail the impacts will almost certainly increase — any increase in the actual hazard due to climate change will only magnify those impacts.

After a very busy last week or so, the weather pattern is quieting down a bit as far as severe weather. Having said that, today will still be relatively active from central Texas through the central Gulf Coast region. Severe thunderstorm watches are in effect this afternoon from north Texas east through southwest Alabama, with ongoing storms producing large hail and some damaging wind gusts. Meanwhile, farther west an enhanced risk of severe storms is in place this evening across central Texas where supercell storms capable of producing giant (3” or greater) hail are expected.

The weather pattern over the next several days will be transitioning toward an upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern United States, and as this happens a series of upper level weather disturbances will move east across the southern United States, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to areas that desperately need it from the southern Rockies (where there will also be some higher elevation snowfall) to Florida. While not a drought buster by any means, the rain will be welcome and will help temper the ongoing wildfire danger in many areas.

Even though most of the southern US is in drought, training thunderstorms could produce sufficient rainfall in a short period of time to cause flash flooding, particularly in urban areas. A slight (level 2 of 4) risk of flash flooding is in place for central Texas Thursday, and across much of the western and central Gulf Coast region (above) Friday.

I have been a huge Peanuts fan since I was about 4 years old, and thanks to my longtime friend (and paid subscriber!) Dawn Crosno, I have a wonderful Peanuts calendar on my desk. This is today’s strip - and I think you will see why I thought it particularly related to Balanced Weather and something I should share with all of you. Have a great evening!

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Today was another busy day of severe weather, and once again very large hail was a big issue. This graphic from the NSSL Multi-radar Multi-sensor System (MRMS) shows the swaths of maximum estimated hail size over the 6 hours ending at 8 pm CT, and clearly shows the path of a number of supercell storms producing very large hail from areas of southern Missouri down to the Interstate 20 corridor.

Under the proper environmental conditions, supercell thunderstorms can “split” into two separate storms, with one storm turning and moving more to left and the other moving more to the right. In general, the left moving storm is typically a prolific hail producer, while the right moving storm tends to have a greater tornado potential. Late this morning, a left moving supercell thunderstorm moved across southwest Missouri including the Springfield metro area, producing a swath of very large hail up to softball sized (4”).

Major impacts occurred across the region, including numerous Missouri Highway Patrol vehicles suffering serious damage (picture above courtesy MHP) and the death of an emu and serious injury to a rhea at the Dickerson Park Zoo.

The swath of giant hail associated with this left moving storm is very apparent on the Storm Prediction Center severe weather report map, as well as a swath of significant hail from a southeast moving supercell in the area west and southwest of Fort Worth. Hail up to 3” in diameter also fell in parts of central Mississippi.

Tornado watches remain in effect into the early morning hours across parts of the South, with several severe storms continuing to move southeast across the region. Localized flash flooding will also be a concern as storms could train repeatedly over some spots. The threat for severe weather should gradually wane later tonight, and after nearly a week of very active severe weather the country will be transitioning to a new weather pattern with lesser (but still some) severe weather risks. More to come on that pattern change in tomorrow’s newsletter.

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Good evening, I wanted to give a quick update on the severe weather so far today. As more or less expected, a number of severe thunderstorms developed across the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and has now congealed into a large band of severe thunderstorms from central Indiana to southeast Missouri. Meanwhile, more discrete supercell thunderstorms also developed across northeast Texas and southwest Missouri and have been moving east the last several hours — and more recently storms have begun to increase across parts of Arkansas.

While these storms certainly produced the anticipated severe weather outbreak with more than 300 reports of severe weather, so far the more significant tornadic impacts have (thankfully) not materialized. As of now, it seems as if most of the tornadic activity has occurred this evening with areas of rotation embedded with the line of storms moving across Illinois.

Although not shown on this report map, there have been confirmed tornadoes in the area east of St. Louis, including this potentially strong tornado with a well defined radar detected tornado debris signature between Germantown and Carlyle, IL.

While to this point storm evolution has kept the tornado activity less than anticipated, the overall environmental conditions will remain favorable for significant tornadoes for the next several hours. This graphic shows the Energy Helicity Index (EHI) at 10 pm CT from the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. EHI is a parameter that combines instability and shear to give meteorologists a quick idea of how favorable the environment is for tornadoes, and these values across the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley are quite supportive of the potential for strong tornadoes.

As a result, tornado watches are in effect for the next several hours as these storms move east and southeast. The intensity of the line should start to wane as it moves farther east into more stable air across the Tennessee Valley after midnight, but at least of slight risk of severe weather including damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the early morning hours.

Tuesday is anticipated to be another busy day of severe weather, with an enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk of severe storms from the Arklatex east across northern Mississippi. As of now, it looks like a couple of waves of severe storms will move east-southeast across this region, supported by increasing middle and upper level winds and a very unstable atmosphere. Damaging winds, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible with these storms.

I will be traveling home on Tuesday, so my updates may be more limited until the evening. However, if any major events or changes happen tonight or in the morning, I will get out at least a quick post.

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Good morning everyone, I just wanted to do a quick post to update the severe weather risk for today. The radar at 9 am CT shows a band of strong thunderstorms crossing the Mississippi River north of St. Louis and extending back to west central Missouri. This band of storms is moving to the east — and the widespread cloudiness and precipitation in areas of northern Illinois and eastern Iowa should temper the magnitude of the severe weather risk in these areas today.

This has resulted in the Storm Prediction Center reducing the risk of severe weather for today in these areas, and as I discussed in last night’s post the greatest risk for significant severe weather appears as if it will focus this afternoon and evening from central Illinois into parts of the Mid-South with an enhanced risk for potentially intense tornadoes across east central and southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. SPC has upgraded that area to a moderate (level 4 of 5) risk of severe weather today.

The risk of supercell severe storms — capable of very large hail and significant tornadoes — should increase in the mid afternoon and continue into the evening hours across this region. By late evening, it is expected that the storms will form into a squall line which will push east into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions with a risk of damaging winds and tornadoes.

Some of these thunderstorms across the Mid-Mississippi Valley will be training west to east today, resulting in localized very heavy rainfall that could post a risk of flash flooding. A slight (level 2 of 4) risk of flash flooding is in place as shown above.

Another area I want to highlight is from the Arklatex northeast toward Memphis. While this area is to the southwest of the main area of focus over the Mississippi Valley, the short range models have been trending toward more widespread thunderstorm development in this region late this afternoon and evening (latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast radar for 9 pm CT shown as an example). Conditions are expected to be quite favorable for intense supercell storms with very large hail and possible tornadoes in this region.

As the cold front associated with today’s severe weather sags into the South on Tuesday, it will provide the focus for additional severe storm development across a broad area from Texas into the Mid-South as shown in this morning National Center for Atmospheric Research AI forecast of severe weather probabilities.

I will be providing updates on the severe weather today via social media, Substack notes and potentially another article or two. Additionally, I am planning to do an ongoing Substack Chat about the evolving severe weather risks and potentially a live video update or two. As a reminder, access to these features are a benefit that paid subscribers receive for their support of Balanced Weather — any videos will of course be made available to all subscribers as soon as I can get them processed.

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An intense supercell severe thunderstorm dropped southeast across north Texas Saturday evening, producing multiple tornadoes, measured winds near 90 mph, and numerous reports of very large hail up to 3” in diameter. NWS survey teams confirmed an EF2 tornado from this storm over Wise County, TX in the community of Runaway Bay, killing 1 person and injuring 6, with 20 families displaced. An additional EF1 tornado was confirmed by the NWS a bit farther south near Springtown in Parker County. 1 person was killed in Parker County when their mobile home was destroyed by intense straight line winds from this storm.

The path of severe reports from this intense southeast moving supercell stands out very clearly across north Texas on the Storm Prediction Center map of severe weather reports from Saturday. Other severe storms produced a few tornadoes across Oklahoma as well as numerous reports of very large hail across the Arklatex region.

Today has been another quite active severe weather day across parts of the central U.S., with very large hail again the dominant severe weather incidence and eastern Kansas into western Missouri the primary area.

Monday looks as if it could be the most impactful severe weather day of this sequence of severe weather events. As a strong upper level disturbance swings east into the Midwest, a potent low pressure system will develop at the surface across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a moist and very unstable air mass is expected to be in place ahead of this system. The combination of atmospheric forcing, strong instability and wind shear is expected to result in the development of numerous severe thunderstorms across the Mississippi Valley region where an enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk of severe storms is in place.

The most recent severe weather probabilities from the Nadocast AI system suggests that the highest risk for the most significant severe weather — including strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging straight line winds — should be across parts of southern Missouri into central and southern Illinois, which seems reasonable based on a quick perusal of the most recent global model data and recently arriving evening high resolution models. Given the combination of very high instability and strong winds in the atmosphere, a few intense tornadoes are possible as part of this anticipated outbreak of severe storms — the exact maximum risk areas will likely be near a warm front across parts of central Illinois and along atmospheric boundaries left behind by thunderstorm activity that is expected overnight and into Monday morning.

The aforementioned surface low will move northeast into Canada by Tuesday, leaving a trailing cold front sagging south across the Arklatex and Mid-South region. Additional upper level disturbances moving along this front along with continued very unstable air ahead of it will result in additional severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as shown above.

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The NSB is a unique entity within the U.S. government. In addition to advising the administration and Congress on national science policy, it has statutory authority to oversee the actions of the $9-billion NSF, setting policy and approving large expenditures. Its presidentially appointed members, typically prominent academics and industry leaders, serve 6-year terms, with eight members chosen every 2 years.

Members of the NSB have been vocal in opposing the Trump Administration’s proposed massive cuts to NSF, and the Science report notes concerns that the elimination of the board is further effort to reduce or eliminate any independence of NSF. While Congress rejected the overwhelming bulk of the budget cuts that the administration sought to NSF this year, the agency has come under scrutiny for a major reduction in its grant awards so far in 2026, raising concerns that the administration may be attempting to reduce NSF spending through budget execution. NSF is of particular concern to the atmospheric science community given the agency’s announced plans to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

The future of the NSB is now uncertain, i.e., it is unclear as to whether the administration will seek to appoint its own members or simply leave the board disbanded. House Science Committee ranking member Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) released a statement outlining her strong opposition to the administration’s action, saying in part:

It unfortunately is no surprise a president who has attacked NSF from day one would seek to destroy the board that helps guide the Foundation. Will the president fill the NSB with MAGA loyalists who won’t stand up to him as he hands over our leadership in science to our adversaries? A real bozo the clown move.

Obviously, there will be more to come on this story in the coming days.

Severe weather is ongoing this evening across parts of the south central United States, with particularly intense supercell severe storms occurring across north Texas this evening.

As of 10 pm CT a potentially destructive supercell was approaching the Fort Worth area from the northwest. Radar was showing the potential for damaging straight line winds in excess of 80 mph and very large hail, along with strong low level rotation indicative of tornadic potential. A measured wind gust of 89 mph was reported by NWS Fort Worth from a HAM radio spotter near Springtown shortly before 10 pm.

Severe weather risks will continue overnight across north Texas and into the Arklatex region. These storms are also rather slow moving, and as a result the risk of flash flooding is also elevated, particularly in urban areas.

The threat of severe weather is expected to shift a bit to the north on Sunday as a strong upper level disturbance begins to shift northeast into the central US. An enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk of significant severe storms with potential very large hail, strong tornadoes and damaging winds is in place.

As that upper level disturbance swings east-northeast into the Midwest, the severe weather risk looks to peak on Monday with the potential for a serious outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Areas of the Mid-Mississippi Valley look most at risk for intense supercell storms capable of very large hail, significant tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

Unfortunately, severe weather is not the only serious meteorological concern in the next 36 hours. Strong westerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon in the extremely dry air to the south of the upper level disturbance, resulting in a widespread area of very critical fire danger. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the area over eastern New Mexico and part of the western Texas Panhandle to an extreme (level 3 of 3), particularly dangerous fire weather risk for Sunday afternoon and evening.

I will be busy with one more day of volunteer work on Sunday — but expect to have time for more frequent updates about this evolving weather situation Sunday evening and into Monday.

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Shortly after I made my post last night about the ongoing severe weather in the Plains, an intense supercell severe thunderstorm produced a large, violent tornado near Vance Air Force Base and the south side of Enid, Oklahoma.

This is an image of radar reflectivity and velocity (Doppler winds) image from the Vance AFB NEXRAD radar (located about 15 miles northwest of the base) from 8:12 pm CT, about the time the NWS damage survey estimated that the tornado started. The storm was exhibiting a classic “hook echo” pattern in reflectivity data, and showed a very tight tornadic circulation with a wind difference of about 150 mph (gate-to-gate Delta-V as meteorologists refer to it).

About 15 minutes later, the reflectivity and velocity data was similar, but by this point there were also clear signs of lofted tornadic debris being detected by the radar. The reflectivity values near the circulation (circled) showed values greater than 60 dBZ - this showed where the radar beam was striking objects of debris lofted by the tornado, causing higher levels of power to be reflected back to the radar. This enhanced reflectivity due to tornadic debris is referred to as a “debris ball.” Additionally, in dual-polarization correlation coefficient data (lower right), a large area of very low (blue) values was detected, indicating where the radar was discerning objects of different shapes and sizes, again due to the presence of lofted debris. This dual-polarization radar signature is known as a “tornadic debris signature.” Debris was detected in the dual-pol data to a height of at least 20,000 feet, an indication of an intense tornado.

An NWS damage survey confirmed that the tornado was at least an EF4 with maximum winds of 170 mph. In spite of dozens of homes being heavily damaged or destroyed, amazingly no fatalities were reported.

This tornado was one of nearly 300 incidences of severe weather reported to the Storm Prediction Center on Thursday, including numerous reports of very large hail (2+ inches) and more than 20 reports of tornadoes.

Today has been quite active as well, with Oklahoma again seeing significant severe weather but this time in the southern part of the state where hail up to baseball sized was reported. Other severe storms impacted Mississippi, with damaging winds caused a tree to fall through a house in Pelahatchie, injuring a person.

As I have been discussing, the last couple of days were the start of a multi-day period of active severe weather for the country, with the National Center for Atmospheric Research AI severe weather probabilities above highlighting areas at risk over the next several days. Saturday afternoon and evening look quite active from Kansas through the Arklatex region. An extremely unstable airmass will fuel intense supercell severe thunderstorms with very large hail and tornadoes — some of which could be strong — possible.

Sunday into Monday looks to bring the potential for an outbreak of severe weather. This risk starts in Kansas and the Mid-Missouri Valley Sunday afternoon and evening, and should shift into the Mississippi Valley and Mid-South regions on Monday. Very large hail, significant tornadoes, and damaging winds will be possible from the most intense storms during this period.

I do not want to forget the other big weather story headed into this weekend, wildfires and fire danger. In addition to severe weather, this weather pattern will also bring increased wildfire danger to the southern Rockies and High Plains, and red flag warnings are in effect this weekend. Dry weather also continues to fuel growing wildfires across Florida and southern Georgia, where more than 100 homes have been destroyed by a major wildfire. More than 150 wildfires are burning in this region, and a Florida firefighter was sadly killed battling a wildfire in this area.

While widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over the next several days for parts of the drought plagued Mid-South and Southeast, most of this rainfall should remain northwest of the most impacted areas from southern Georgia into Florida.

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I want to start off this evening’s post with a little classic meteorology I noted in the ongoing weather this evening. The chart above shows the current winds this evening at 200 millibars (about 39,000 ft AGL), the upper levels of the atmosphere where we can look for the jet stream. There is a maximum of winds greater than 120 knots across northern Baja and into west Texas - what meteorologists call a jet maximum or “jetmax.” The area to the northeast of that jetmax, is a favorable area for atmospheric lift and — if other conditions are favorable — thunderstorms.

If you look at the wind barbs, which show the direction of the winds, you can see that the winds are blowing from the west-southwest in the jet max but then turn more northwesterly as winds exit the jetmax. Meanwhile, to the north of that jetmax is another less intense jetmax across the central Rockies — the winds are blowing west-southwest through that maximum as well, but then turn more northeast exiting the jetmax. In between the exit region of the two jet maxima where I have drawn a brown squiggly line, the winds are what meteorologists call “diffluent.” This diffluence further enhances the atmospheric lift and can further help support thunderstorm development.

What is extra cool to me — and why I wanted to share this meteorological setup — is you can actually see all of this happening on the visible satellite loop this evening. Cirrus clouds streaming across the southwest indicate the presence of that southern jetmax, and you can see the winds turning more northwesterly across Texas. Meanwhile, over western Kansas and eastern Colorado, you can see the high clouds streaming to the northeast in the exit region of the northern wind maximum. In between — in the diffluent wind area — severe thunderstorms have erupted from the Oklahoma/Kansas border north across eastern Kansas. Being able to visualize these sorts of atmospheric processes are a key to why satellite imagery is so important to meteorologists.

These severe storms are within an area of highly unstable air and moderate wind shear, and as a result supercell storms with very large hail and potential tornadoes are ongoing.

Farther north, a line of severe storms has been sweeping across the Missouri Valley region with numerous reports of large hail and a few tornadoes.

Today looks to be the start of a very active pattern of severe weather which will persist well into next week (as one of my colleagues succinttly put it: the pattern the next 10-14 days will ROCK!) Weather disturbances moving through an active jet stream will be interacting with what looks to be a persistently moist and very unstable airmass, resulting in numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms over at least the next week as shown in the National Center for Atmospheric Research AI probabilistic severe weather forecast for the next 8 days above.

Along with active severe weather, this pattern also looks busy for wildfire danger across parts of the central US. Red flag warnings are currently in effect for a large region over the High Plains where strong winds and dry conditions are yielding spreading wildfires this evening, including one that has forced evacuations near Fort Collins, CO.

Wildfires also continue to burn mostly out of control in the extreme drought area of northern Florida and southern Georgia, with nearly 100 homes now reported destroyed in south Georgia. While rain and thunderstorms will bring some drought relief to parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley by later this weekend into next week, areas farther southeast toward south Georgia and Florida look to see relatively limited rainfall for the next 7-10 days as of now.

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Wildfires have continued to become an increasingly seriously issue across the Southeast in the last 24 hours, with more than 50 homes destroyed by an expanding wildfire over southeast Georgia and additional wildfires burning across northern Florida. The state of Georgia declared its first ever state issued burn ban for more than 90 counties in southern Georgia where drought conditions are most severe.

Unfortunately, conditions generally look dry across this region for the next week, although some change in the weather pattern should bring helpful rainfall from showers and thunderstorms to other parts of the drought stricken Southeast by early next week.

Wildfire danger is also a significant concern across the central United States this evening, with red flag warnings in effect as gusty southerly winds and generally dry conditions persist — and some particularly intense wind gusts are being produced by some scattered severe thunderstorms over the Dakotas. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of these same areas on Thursday — and active fire weather conditions are expected to persist especially across the southern High Plains and Rockies into early next week.

Along with the fire weather concerns, severe weather chances will begin ramping up across the central United States starting on Thursday, with a broad area from Oklahoma northeast to the upper Midwest under a risk of severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening as an upper level weather system impacts the region. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible with the most intense storms.

The cold front associated with this weather system will push slowly southeast Friday, shifting the severe weather risk accordingly.

An active period of severe weather is expected this weekend into the first part of next week as a series of disturbances move through an active jet stream that will be slowly shifting south with time. A couple of strong disturbances combining with a very unstable atmosphere look prime to produce some potent severe storms this weekend across the central and southern Plains as shown by the NCAR AI severe weather probabilities based on the European ensemble model (Saturday and Sunday forecasts the two upper left hand maps above). The risk should become more focused along Interstate 20 corridor in the south central and southeast states by the middle of next week.

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Most of the busy weather in the next 36 hours will be in the western half of the country with an upper level area of low pressure moving east. Strong winds and high elevation mountain snow are expected west of the Continental Divide, while gusty southerly winds and continued dry conditions in the High Plains and parts of the southern Rockies will result in critical wildfire conditions with Red Flag Warnings in effect. Meanwhile, wildfires continue to become a greater issue in parts of Florida and Georgia, with more than 10K acres now burned in the region and Amtrak forced to postpone service due to fire concerns.

After a couple of day break in severe weather, the risk should gradually ramp up as the upper level trough of low pressure moves farther east. A relatively widespread risk of severe storms is expected Thursday across the central U.S. as shown in the National Center for Atmospheric Research AI severe weather probabilities for that day (upper right hand map in graphic above). Severe weather risks are expected to continue and shift a bit farther south through the weekend and into the first part of next week as the jet stream drops south and disturbances continue to move east.

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In my final post about the upper air data issue last week, I mentioned that I want to shed light on some NWS infrastructure and administrative issues that I think are of potential greater concern. These include the aging NEXRAD Doppler weather radar network that I have discussed before and longtime issues with NWS communications and information technology (IT) infrastructure.

This is a screen grab from the RadarScope app from the evening of March 26, a day on which rather significant severe thunderstorms occurred across northern Indiana and Ohio with more than 200 reports of severe weather. The four-letter IDs on the map are NEXRAD and FAA Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) sites that you can choose to view data from. The four sites right in the middle that are all red are missing data: KILN is the NEXRAD at the NWS office in Wilmington, OH and the three surrounding Terminal Doppler radars at the airports in Dayton, Columbus and Cincinnati.

While there are definitely increasing concerns about the reliability of the aging NEXRAD fleet, in this case the issues were not with the radar themselves, but apparently with communications lines. The office at Wilmington was without communication for several hours, forcing the NWS office in Cleveland to provide backup services for the incommunicado Wilmington. Cleveland issued several severe thunderstorm warnings for Wilmington like the one above and a number of follow-up statements between 744 and 942 pm ET.

The office in Cleveland had to pick up the workload of the Wilmington office while they were dealing with even more widespread and significant severe weather in their own area of responsibility, including two confirmed tornadoes during the period they were providing backup for Wilmington. To be clear, NWS offices have plans to take over for a disabled office, and I have no reason to suspect that the situation was not handled effectively — but obviously a single office fully engaged with severe weather having to take on the workload on the fly of another office also dealing with severe weather is not an optimal situation.

NWS IT and comms infrastructure issues are certainly nothing new. Major vulnerabilities were exposed during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang has published numerous articles over the last number of years about these issues, including this one in 2021 outlining a near total collapse of the agency’s online systems including NWSChat, the instant messaging service NWS offices use to engage in real-time with key partners such as emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists. The NWS has made definite progress in improving some of these issues, including a very successful revamp of NWSChat by moving it to the commercial Slack online chat service.

However, many issues remain. During severe weather last Monday afternoon, three radars in the Midwest — Central Illinois, Northern Indiana, and Indianapolis — were offline at the same time for what I understand was a combination of comms and radar issues. The aging of the NEXRAD network is only going to become a more problematic issue until a new Doppler weather radar system is deployed — a solution that remains years away.

There has still been very little made public about the NWS impending reorganization, but my understanding from multiple sources is that a key aspect of it is the closing of the regional headquarters offices (map above) that have provided support to local NWS offices for things like IT and comms — as well as administrative, logistical and overall management support — for many decades.

While I will be the first person to tell you that the regional structure is incredibly flawed and in need of elimination or complete revamp, obviously for a complex critical public safety agency like NWS with more than 100 local offices, moving to a completely new support and administrative structure after more than 50 years of utilizing the current one is a monumental change that should require serious planning and major collaboration. Based on things I am hearing from many former colleagues, I am very concerned about how this transition will be handled.

First off, even though the move to this new planned organization of the agency was just briefed to managers and employees in the last several weeks, it is scheduled to become effective on June 1. While the general concept to eliminate the regional headquarters and move to a more national organizational structure with “sectors” is known, the myriad details of how facilities, technical and administrative support will be effectively provide to field offices and employees seems very much in flux. Obviously, with such a fluid organizational structure, effective communication and collaboration between various levels of the organization will be paramount. However, a long time NWS management member told me privately today that communications from higher levels of the organization are at the worst point they have witnessed at any time in their 30 year NWS career, and I have heard similar perspectives from many others.

Needless to say, all of this — combined with continuing staffing shortages and budget issues — concerns me greatly about the state and readiness of this crucial agency as we head into the peak of severe weather season and the start of hurricane season. As I discussed many times last year when issues about NWS readiness and performance came up after events like the Texas Hill Country Floods, I have no doubt that NWS employees at all levels of the organization remain deeply committed to the mission and will do their best to ensure there will be no degradation of service. However, the combination of years of deferring crucial organizational changes combined with additional organizational stresses brought on by actual and desired cuts and agency changes from the Trump Administration have left the NWS — in my opinion — in a vulnerable state. As someone who has spent his adult life in support of the mission of this agency that I feel is as vital as any to our country, I feel compelled to continue to share my concerns in the hopes that everything that can be done to adequately support the scientists and technicians who provide the critical, life-saving mission of the NWS will in fact be pursued.

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While there is obviously a lot of negativity permeating the national scientific community these days, I think it is very important to recognize when a potential cut is rescinded. My sense is that part of the strategy of the current administration is to announce a lot of major budget and staffing cuts — and then see which ones get a lot of pushback and which ones do not. In such an environment, it is more important than ever for groups like the atmospheric science community to be vocal with their concerns.

One particular point in this story about the CIRES furlough rescissions I wanted to highlight was CIRES Director Waleed Abdalati telling the Boulder Reporting Lab that “in the past, if federal funding lagged, the university trusted ‘that the government was good for it’ and could cover staff costs until funding came in to reimburse the university. ‘But given the current funding environment, that’s a risk that we just can’t take,’ he told Boulder Reporting Lab in early April.”

As someone who personally has a lot of experience from the federal side in working through these scientific grants to universities, I cannot stress just how important I find this observation by Director Abdalati. While the delays in processing federal science grants we are seeing today are way beyond what was common in the past — and in fact seem to be a strategy by administration budget officials to curtail spending — “normal” bureaucratic delays in getting federal money to universities doing scientific work for the government is certainly nothing new.

In my own experience, these delays occasionally got to the point where project funding was actually about to run out. However, just as Director Abdalati explains, in all of those situations the university was able to keep scientists employed and working based on assurances from their federal partners that the money was “on the way.” I do not believe there is any way in the current environment that university officials could continue that practice given the clear messaging by the current administration about aggressive cuts to scientific budgets — and of course the fact that the administration is actually allowing funding to lapse for a number of projects. These are the sort of issues that will complicate the administrative processes of federally supported science going forward even if and when budgets return to more stable levels.

After a very busy week last week, the weather this week is starting off much quieter. A storm system moving into the West Coast will bring rain, thunderstorms, and some high elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest and California the next couple of days. While the precipitation is of course very welcome for much of this area, the track of this weather system is such that it will bring limited precipitation to areas from the Southwest into the central Rockies that most desperately need it given ongoing extreme drought. Showers and storms will bring some much needed moderate rainfall to parts of Texas.

Last week was very active for severe weather, with nearly 2200 reports of severe weather received, culminating in the severe weather outbreak on Friday (graphic above) that produced a number of significant tornadoes across the upper Midwest, widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes across the mid-Mississippi Valley, and hundreds of reports of large hail all across the central U.S.

The biggest focus for severe weather much of last week was in the upper Midwest, which is very unusual for this early in the year. As this graphic shows, the daily climatological probability of severe weather for mid-April is focused much farther south (data available from Storm Prediction Center).

The probability of significant tornadoes is even more dramatically focused much farther south at this time of year, primarily along the Interstate 20 corridor and parts of the lower Ohio Valley.

The National Severe Storms Lab and Storm Prediction Center have a wonderful severe weather monitoring page that enables examining all sorts of trends in recent severe weather reports, including how recent reports compare to “normal.” This graphic shows just how unusual the severe weather over the last week in the upper Midwest was compared to normal. Below normal severe weather activity in the Southeast is also quite apparent.

A similar trend can be seen in the tornado reports over the last week, with a maximum in above normal activity centered over southwest Wisconsin.

While this week is starting off quiet, it does look as if severe weather probabilities will ramp up later this week as the storm system moving into the West Coast the next couple of days pulls east into the Midwest. Once again it looks like the threat of severe storms will be unusually far to the north with this system, with the NCAR AI probabilities showing a large swath of rather high probabilities of severe weather on Thursday from the mid-Missouri Valley north into the upper Midwest. By next week it does seem as if the threat for severe weather may start to shift southward as a large upper level area of high pressure developing over Canada should force the jet stream farther south.

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The most recent drought monitor from the USDA and NOAA was released late last week, and it showed that drought has continued to intensify across parts of the country. 15% of the country is now experiencing extreme or exceptional drought, the highest percentage since the first half of 2022. The most extreme drought is focused in three main regions of the country.

As has been extensively reported in the media in the last several weeks, snowpack is extremely poor over pretty much the entire western United States, with most areas other than the mountains of Washington and the northern Rockies seeing snow water equivalent (amount of water that would result if all snow on the ground were melted) values well below 50% of normal.

All of these stations marked with red dots observed their lowest snow water equivalent (SWE) on record for the date yesterday, with the orange dots representing the second lowest on record.

The SWE map shows a particular concentration of record low values across Utah and Colorado, and the percent of normal precipitation for the current water year (October 1 to today) shows that this region down into the area of the Four Corners has been the area that has been the driest overall for the last several months, with many areas having less than 25% of their normal rainfall. This has resulted this region being the current ground zero for drought in the West, with most areas in extreme drought and northwest Colorado in exceptional drought.

This region includes the headwaters for the Colorado River, and the drought is exacerbating an ongoing water crisis (read my colleague Matt Lanza’s excellent summary from several weeks ago here) surrounding this critical sources of water supply for much of the Southwest. Late last week, the Trump Administration announced emergency measures to try to prevent Lake Powell, the second largest reservoir in the nation, from falling to levels so low that it would not be able to produce hydroelectric power.

The other two areas of extreme to exceptional drought are in the South, one area running from south Texas to the Mid-South, and the other centered in northern Florida and southern Georgia. Obviously, these regions typically get much more rain than that the West, and these areas have been suffering from chronic below normal precipitation for the last year. Many areas now need more than a foot of rainfall to relieve the long term drought conditions. This has serious implications for water supply (e.g., Corpus Christi severe water crisis) and wildfire potential. Spring is the typical peak of wildfire season in Florida and surrounding areas, and there have already been significant issues with wildfires in recent weeks in the state. Dry and record warm temperatures in the last several days (Atlanta reached 90F on its earliest date on record Friday) has exacerbated the short term situation, and elevated wildfire conditions are expected across this region in the coming days.

Not a lot of relief is expected in the areas with most severe drought concerns over the upcoming week, with the exception of the area from south Texas into the Mid-South where showers and storms will provide some moderate amounts of rainfall.

Meanwhile one of the few parts of the country that has seen above normal precipitation so far in 2026 has been the western Great Lakes region, and the issue here is definitely with too much rainfall as many rivers are in major flood.

In fact, some rivers are at record levels. The Muskegon River is at record levels. The gage at Bridgeton shattered its previous record, reaching 19.27’ yesterday (records go back to at least the late 1970s).

An upstream gauge at Evart also set a new record stage, and records here go back to at least the early 1930s.

Record flooding is also occurring in parts of Wisconsin, with the Wolf River at New London reaching a record yesterday (records go back to at least the 1930s).

Needless to say, this is having major impacts to property in the region — evacuations have resulted and the governors of Wisconsin and Michigan have declared states of emergency. While the weather will not be as active for thunderstorms in this region in the upcoming week as was seen last week, more showers and storms will be possible later in the week.

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There are several REU programs in atmospheric science programs around the country, but the OU REU program is special for a number of reasons, most importantly that it is based at the National Weather Center (NWC) in Norman. The NWC is an incredibly unique facility in that is houses a noted atmospheric sciences university program (OU) and its associated research institutions such as CIWRO and the Advanced Radar Research Center; a premier NOAA research lab (National Severe Storms Lab); the NWS national centers for severe weather and fire weather forecasting (Storm Prediction Center), hazardous weather warning training (Warning Decision Training Division) and radar meteorology (Radar Operations Center); as well as regional and state entities such as the Oklahoma Mesonet and USGS South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and the local NWS forecast office. All of these research and operational entities being collocated provides an incredibly rich and dynamic scientific environment for undergraduate students to be immersed into, and the opportunity to be exposed to many diverse potential job and research paths as they move forward with their academic and professional careers.

I was lucky enough to serve as an REU mentor for students working on research projects related to my work at NSSL, and saw firsthand how this incredible program helps students develop into outstanding professional scientists. I literally know dozens of leading atmospheric scientists who went through the REU program at OU, and many of them have spoken about how their time in the summer REU program was a seminal experience in their career journey.

The 2026 OU REU was cancelled because the NSF grant funding the program was due for renewal this year, and as of yesterday Dr. LaDue and her team had still not received any word on if the grant would be renewed. At this point, it is too late in the year for the logistical arrangements to be made to host the program even if the grant ends up being funded. My sense is that the OU REU program is another casualty of the seemingly intentionally slow grant awarding in federal science agencies that I have talked about in earlier posts.

These federal policy decisions have a real life impacts to a multitude of people. This article from Inside Higher Ed talks about the numerous REU programs across STEM fields having to be shuttered this year across the country this summer — and the impacts to the students and our nation’s scientific capacity. It personally makes me very sad and angry that multiple cohorts of young scientists will not get to have this potentially life changing experience this summer — and that our society will not be able to reap the potential benefits that would arise from the development of these young scientists. I only hope that sanity prevails at some point, and that these programs — especially the OU atmospheric science REU program — return in future summers.

Turning to weather, the severe weather outbreak anticipated for Friday worked out about as anticipated. The large number of storms led to a lot of interactions between storms which helped keep the tornado situation from getting out of hand, but there were still a number of tornadoes reported across the Midwest. The most significant ones appear to have occurred in parts of Wisconsin and northwest Illinois where several locations had serious damage. Intense lines of severe storms caused extensive straight line wind damage across parts of Wisconsin, Illinois and Missouri leaving more than 100,000 customers without power at the peak of the storms last night. Nearly 30 reports of very large hail (greater than 2”) were scattered from northern Oklahoma to the upper Mississippi Valley.

Today should be a much tamer day as far as severe weather, but a few severe storms are possible along the cold front shifting to the southeast. A slight (level 2 of 5) risk is in place in the eastern Great Lakes and middle Appalachian regions where a few severe storms with damaging wind are possible along the front this afternoon and evening.

With all of the severe weather this week, I have not talked as much about the record warmth, but there has been plenty of it again over the last several days, particularly across the eastern half of the country. Record highs have been common in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, and per the table above record warm minimums have been particularly widespread. Washington DC, Philadelphia, and Baltimore all had their first 90F day this week, weeks before the average first 90F which typically comes later in May (thanks to my colleague Victor Murphy for this info). Capital Weather Gang noted yesterday that Washington has already had a dozen days with a high of 80F or higher this year, the most on record so early.

Today will see one more day of numerous record highs across the Southeast, before the cold front finally brings some cooler air to the region.

The air moving into the Northeast behind this front will be quite cold for late April, with some record low temperatures possible Tuesday. Meanwhile, much of the remainder of the country will once again see above normal temperatures on average for this upcoming work week.

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